Research

• Tradeoffs over Rate Cycles: Activity, Inflation and the Price Level (May 2025), joint with Jongrim Ha and Ayhan Kose. Paper prepared for the NBER’s 40^th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics, held in Cambridge, MA on April 10-11, 2025.
  • • Also available as NBER Working Paper # 33825 and CEPR Discussion Paper #20240
    • Slides from NBER presentation (April 2025)
    • Zip file with program and data to replicate dates and statistics for Rate Cycles, including a Read me document with information and graphs with the Rate Cycles for each economy
    • Dates of resulting Rate Cycles (stata file)
    • Links to press: summary in Devdiscourse

• The Art of Monetary Policy (October 2024). Karl Brunner Distinguished Lecture, Swiss National Bank.
  • • Updated version, CEPR Discussion Paper 19905 (Feb 2025)
    • Slides from lecture at ETH Zurich on October 3, 2024.
    • Link to Introduction by Martin Schlegel, Chairman of the Governing Board
    • Link to video of lecture
• Rate Cycles (July 2024) with Jongrim Ha and M. Ayhan Kose. In Monetary Policy in an Era of Transformation, ECB Forum in Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal.
  • • Slides from conference presentation at the ECB Forum at Sintra (July 2024)
    • Also published as MIT-Sloan Research Paper no. 7185-24
    • Also published as CEPR Working Paper DP19272 (July 2024)
    • Related VoxEU blog, “Demand versus Supply: Drivers of the Post-Pandemic Inflation and Interest Rates” (Aug. 9, 2024)
• Quantitative Tightening Around The Globe: What Have We Learned? (October 2024) with Wenxin Du and Matthew Luzzetti. NBER Working Paper #32321.
  • • Op-ed: The Data is In: How QT Impacts Markets, Financial Times, March 4, 2024
    • Selected press mentions: MNI (March 1, 2024), Reuters (March 2, 2024), Financial Times (March 4, 2024)
    • US Monetary Policy Forum conference presentation slides (March 2024)
    • Older version (February 2024): Quantitative Tightening Around The Globe: What Have We Learned? Presented at US Monetary Policy Forum, March 1
    • Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper #19626

• Balance Sheet Policy and the Mortgage Market (august 2024), discussion at Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium: Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy, organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
  • • Conference presentation slides from Jackson Hole
• Monetary Policy Response to the Post-Pandemic Inflation (2024) with Bill English and Ángel Ubide.
  • • Overview and full CEPR book
    • Link to a VoxEU article with highlights
    • Link to a FT article on the book (February 20, 2024)

• Replacing the Golden Anchor for Price Stability (2024), in Douglas Irwin, Maurice Obstfeld and Adam Posen, eds. Floating Exchange Rates at Fifty. Peterson Institute of International Economics (April), chapter 16.
  • Conference version
  • Slides from conference

• Stress Relief?: Funding Structures and Resilience to the Covid Shock (2023) with Christian Friedrich and Dennis Reinhardt, Journal of Monetary Economics 137 (July):47-81.
  • • Online Appendices for published paper
    • NBER Working Paper #31255 (May 2023)
    • CEPR Working Paper DP #17852 (Jan 2023)
    • MIT-Sloan Working Paper #6976-22 (Nov 2022)
    • Bank of England Staff Working Paper #1003 (Nov 2022)
    • Blog on VoxEU, Funding Structures and Resilience to Shocks after a Decade of Regulatory Reform (June 29, 2023)
    • Blog on Bank Underground, Funding Structures and Resilience to Shocks after a Decade of Regulatory Reform (June 29, 2023)
• Policy Packages and Policy Space: Lessons from COVID-19 (2023) with Katharina Bergant. European Economic Review, Vol. 158 (Sept).
  • • Related blog on VoxEU, Responses to COVID-19: The Role of Policy Space (Jan 2023)
    • Link to zip file with data on policy responses, variable information, and code to replicate selected figures, tables, and regressions
    • NBER Working Paper 31254 (May 2023)
    • CEPR Working Paper DP #17699 (Nov 2022)
    • MIT Sloan Working Paper #6795-22 (Nov 2022)
• Spillovers at the Extremes: The Macroprudential Stance and Vulnerability to the Global Financial Cycle (2022) with Anusha Chari and Karlye Dilts-Stedman. Journal of International Economics vol. 136 (May).
  • • Available as Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Working Paper No. 21016.
    • Available as NBER Working Paper No. 29670.
    • Also available as CEPR Working Paper No. 116889.
• Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve Around the World (2022) with Joseph Gagnon and Christopher Collins. Economia vol. 45 (89): 52-72.
  • • Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve Around the World: Extended Results, Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper 21-15, Sept. 2021.
    • Also available as NBER Working Paper 29323 (Oct. 2021) and CEPR Discussion Paper 16583 (Sept. 2021). Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve Around the World (Old Version), Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper 20-6, March 2020.
    • Also available as MIT Sloan Research Paper 6101-20.
    • Click here for the replication folder with underlying data, code and output files.
    • Selected press mentions: Central Banking (06/04/2020).
• Macroprudential Policy during COVID: The Role of Policy Space (2022) with Katharina Bergant. In Macro-financial Stability Policy in a Globalised World, Chapter 4.
  • • Available as MIT Sloan Research Paper 6444-21 on SSRN.
    • Also available as CEPR Working Paper #DP 16607
• Monetary Policy and Central Banking in the Covid Era (2021) with Bill English and Ángel Ubide.
  • • Overview and full CEPR ebook.
    • Link to a Vox-EU article of highlight.
• The International Aspects of Macroprudential Policy (2021). Annual Review of Economics, 13 (August): 203-228.
  • • Available as NBER Working Paper 27698.
    • Available as MIT Sloan Research Paper 6167-20.
• Macroprudential FX Regulations: Shifting the Snowbanks of FX Vulnerability? (2021) with Toni Ahnert, Christian Friedrich, and Dennis Reinhardt. Journal of Financial Economics 140(1, April): 145-174.
  • • Access to the dataset on macroprudential FX regulations
    • A folder with information on the code and data used for the paper
    • Also available as NBER Working Paper 25083.
    • Also available as MIT-Sloan Research Paper 5293-18.
    • Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP12766.
    • Highlighted in NBER Digest, Dec 2018.
• Capital Flow Waves—Or Ripples? Extreme Capital Flow Movements Since the Crisis (2021) with Francis Warnock. Journal of International Money and Finance 116(Sept).
  • • An earlier 2020 version of NBER Working Paper No. 26851 (March).
    • Basic information on the available datasets.
    • The underlying capital flow data (Feb 2021).
    • The updated list of episodes (Feb 2021).
    • Access the control variables used in the analysis (Feb 2021).
    • More details on the variable definitions and sources (Feb 2021).
    • Also available as an earlier working paper in November 2019.
• International Evidence on Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through (2020) with Ida Hjortsoe and Tsvetelina Nenova. IMF Economic Review 68:721-763.
  • • Data replication files (07/20/20)
    • Earlier versions available:
      • CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP15242 (Sept 2020)
      • NBER  Working Paper No. 27746 (Aug 2020)
      • MIT Sloan Research Paper No. 5522-18 (Sept 2018)
      • Bank of England External MPC Unit Discussion Paper No. 50 (June 2017), a longer version called, "Shocks versus Structure: Explaining Differences in Exchange Rate Pass-Through across Countries and Time."
• Inflation Dynamics: Dead, Dormant, Or Determined Abroad? (2020) Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, prepared for conference on Sept 5-6, 2019 in Washington, DC.
  • • Also available as MIT-Sloan Working Paper 5893-19.
    • Also available as NBER Working Paper 26496.
    • Selected press mentions: Economist (10/10/19), Economist (06/30/18), Central Banking (09/23/19), Axios (09/06/19), Brookings Blog (09/05/19).
    • Directions on how to replicate the results in this paper , here for the source data and here for the program code.
    • Do Sounder Banks Make Calmer Waters? The Link Between Bank Regulations and Capital Flow Waves. (2020). AEA: Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 110 (May) 516-622.
    •   Download the zip file with code and data.
• A Trendy Approach to UK Inflation Dynamics (2019) with Lewis Kirkham and Konstantinos Theodoridis. The Manchester School, July, 1-53.
  • • Also available as: CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP12652 (Jan 2018) and  Bank of England External MPC Unit Discussion Paper No. 49 (June 2017)
    • Selected press mentions, Central Banking (6/20/17), Bloomberg (06/19/17)
• Macroprudential Policy: What We Know, Don’t Know and Need to Do (2019). Paper prepared for AEA Annual meetings held in Atlanta, GA, in January 2019. American Economic Review: AEA Papers and Proceedings 109(2019): 470-475. blank
• The Shocks Matter: Improving Our Estimates of Exchange Rate Pass-Through (2018) with Ida Hjortsoe and Tsvetelina Nenova. Journal of International Economics 114(Sept), pgs. 255-275.
  • • Also available as: NBER Working Paper No. 24773 (July 2018), CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP13037 (July 2018), MIT-Sloan Working Paper #5149-15 (Nov 2015) and Bank of England External MPC Unit Discussion Paper No. 43 (Nov 2015).
    • Online Appendix
    • Data and replication files
    • Selected press mentions, Moving Beyond the Monetary Policy Rule of Thumb (2018), Financial Times (July 8, 2016), Economist (Sept. 23, 2016)
•  The Spillovers, Interactions, and (Un)intended Consequences of Monetary and Regulatory Policies (2017) with Dennis Reinhardt and Tomas Wieladek. Journal of Monetary Economics 85(Jan), 1-22. 
  • • Also available as MIT-Sloan Research paper #5163-16, Bank of England External MPC Unit Discussion Paper No. 44 and NBER Working Paper #22307.
• Current Account Deficits During Heightened Risk: Menacing or Mitigating? (2017) with Ida Hjortsoe and Tsvetelina Nenova. Economic Journal 127 (601): 571-623.
  • • Older version available as: MIT-Sloan Research Paper 5167-16, External MPC Unit Discussion Paper 46, and NBER Working paper #22741.
    • Royal Economic Society non-technical highlights: Current Account Deficits: Knowing When to Act.
    • Dataset for paper.
• Much Ado about Something Important: How do Exchange Rate Movements Effect Inflation (2016) The Manchester School 84 (S1, September), pgs. 15-41. blank
• Bubble Thy Neighbor: Direct and Spillover Effects of Capital Controls (2016) with Marcel Fratzscher, Thomas Kostka and Roland Straub. Journal of International Economics 99 (March), pgs. 85-104.
  • • Earlier versions available as MIT-Sloan Research Paper #4962-12 and NBER Working Paper #18052.
    • Selected Press Mentions: The Economist (10/06/12), Central Banking (08/13/12), Financial Times (01/23/12).
• Capital Flow Management Measures: What are They Good For? (2015) with Marcel Fratzscher, Thomas Kostka, and Roland Straub. Journal of International Economics 96 (1, July), pgs. S76-S97.
  • • Older version available as: MIT-Sloan Working Paper 5061-13 and NBER Working Paper #20860

• Pick Your Poison: The Choices and Consequences of Policy Responses to Crises (2015) with Michael Klein. IMF Economic Review 63 (April), pgs.197-237.
  • • Older version available as: MIT-Sloan Working Paper 5062-13 and NBER Working Paper #20987.

• Capital Flow Volatility and Contagion: A Focus on Asia (2014), in Bruno Carrasco, Subir Gokarn, and Hiranya Mukhopadhyay, eds., Managing Capital Flows: Issues in Selected Emerging Market Economics, Oxford University Press: New Delhi, pgs.3-31.
  • • Older version available as: MIT-Sloan Working Paper 4979-12

• Debt- and Equity-Led Capital Flow Episodes (2014) with Francis Warnock. In Miguel Fuentes and Carmen M. Reinhart, eds. Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy. Santiago: Central Bank of Chile.
  • • Older version available as: NBER Working Paper #18329.

• The "Big C": Identifying and Mitigating Contagion (2013). The Changing Policy Landscape. 2012 Jackson Hole Symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pgs 23-87.
  • • Selected Press Mentions: Bloomberg (08/31/12), Reuters (08/31/12), Wall Street Journal (08/31/12), Financial Times (08/31/12), The Economist (06/16/12).

• Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight and Retrenchment (2012) with Francis Warnock. Journal of International Economics 88(2, Nov): 235-251.
  • • Older version accessible as MIT-Sloan Working paper #4927-11 or NBER Working Paper #17351.
    • Download the dataset of episodes.

• Watch What I Do, Not What I Say: The Unintended Consequences of the Homeland Investment Act (2011) with Dhammika Dharmapala and Fritz Foley. Journal of Finance vol. 66(3, June): pgs. 753-787.
  • • Link to older working paper.
    • Internet Appendix with links to documents.
    • Selected Press Mentions: Boston Globe (12/01/17), The Economist (04/28/11), Washington Post (04/27/11), Bloomberg Business Week (03/17/11), NY Times (06/05/09).

• Why do Foreigners Invest in the United States? (2010) Journal of International Economics 80(1): 3-21.
  • • Lead Article.
    • Link to working paper.
    • Press mentions: Economist (10/03/08), NBER Digest (08/08), Wall Street Journal (06/23/08), US News and World Report, and CNBC Morning Call.

• Financial Constraints and Growth: Multinational and Local Firm Responses to Currency Crises (2008), with Mihir Desai and C. Fritz Foley. Review of Financial Studies vol. 21(6), pgs. 2857-2888.
  • • Runner-up for Michael Brennan Award for Best Paper Published in 2008.

• One Cost of the Chilean Capital Controls: Increased Financial Constraints for Smaller Traded Firms. (2007) Journal of International Economics, vol 71(2, April), pgs. 294-323. blank
• The Microeconomic Evidence on Capital Controls: No Free Lunch (2007). In Sebastian Edwards, ed. Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economics: Policies, Practices, and Consequences. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pgs. 171-199.
  • • Available in NBER working paper form.

• Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia, with Tilak Abeysinghe (2005). Review of International Economics 13(2), pgs. 356-375.
• A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time, with Menzie Chinn (2004). Review of Economics and Statistics, 86(3, August): pgs. 705-722.
  • • Dataset Information (pdf)
    • Factor Model Dataset (zipped stata)
    • Bilateral Linkage Model Dataset (zipped stata)

• The Asian Flu and Russian Virus: The International Transmission of Crises in Firm-Level Data (2004). Journal of International Economics , vol. 63(1, May): pgs. 59-92. blank
• Cheap Labor Meets Costly Capital: The Impact of Devaluations on Commodity Firms (2002). Journal of Development Economics, vol. 69 (2, December), pgs. 335-365. blank
• How do Large Depreciations Affect Firm Performance? (2002). IMF Staff Papers, vol. 49, pgs. 214-238. blank
• Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises? (2002). In Sebastian Edwards and Jeffrey Frankel, eds., Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pgs. 77-124.
  • • (Only available in NBER working paper form.)

• No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements (2002), joint with Roberto Rigobon. Journal of Finance, vol. LVII  (5, October), pgs. 2223-2261. blank
• Skill Classification Does Matter: Estimating the Relationship Between Trade Flows and Wage Inequality (2001). Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, vol. 10  (2, June), pgs. 175-209. blank
• Contagion in Latin America: Definitions, Measurement and Policy Implications (2001), joint with Roberto Rigobon. Economia, vol. 1 (2, Spring), pgs. 1-46. blank
• International Financial Contagion: An Overview of the Issues and the Book (2001), joint with Stijn Claessens. Introductory chapter of International Financial Contagion, edited by Stijn Claessens and Kristin Forbes. Kluwer Academic Publishers, pgs.  3-17. blank
• Measuring Contagion: Conceptual and Empirical Issues (2001), joint with Roberto Rigobon. Chapter 3 in International Financial Contagion, edited by Stijn Claessens and Kristin Forbes. Kluwer Academic Publishers, pgs. 43-66. blank
• A Reassessment of the Relationship Between Inequality and Growth (2000).  American Economic Review, vol. 90 (4, September), pgs. 869-887.

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