Overview
My research develops and tests dynamic, mechanism-based explanations for how organizations and societies change over time—combining fieldwork, experiments, empirical analysis, and simulation modeling.
1) Capability dynamics and managerial learning (strategy & organizations)
- Why firms in the same market sustain persistent differences in capabilities and performance
- How feedback delays and bounded rationality can drive convergence to inefficient strategies and “short-termism”, and how those tradeoffs are affected by competition
- Empirical grounding in settings such as product development, project work, maintenance, manufacturing, and services
2) Public policy and health
- Capturing coupled dynamics of urban systems-- e.g. across housing, labor markets, migration, transportation, and trade-- to enhance policy analysis
- Infectious-disease dynamics and behavioral responses (e.g., risk perception, adherence fatigue, mobility change) in COVID-19 and beyond
- Chronic conditions and biopsychosocial dynamics (e.g., obesity/weight dynamics, depression feedbacks)
- Organizational levers for health and well-being, including workplace interventions and implementation/maintenance of health programs
3) Methods for dynamic modeling
- New tools for estimating complex dynamic models (including alternative likelihoods, Kalman filtering, and scalable likelihood-free/Bayesian approaches)
- Methods to synthesize prior evidence beyond traditional meta-analysis and to build aggregate models from micro-dynamics
- Work on model architecture choices, reproducibility, and research reporting standards for simulation-based studies
Research
"Effectiveness of a Participatory Voice Intervention on Psychological Well-Being Among Warehouse Workers: Results From the Fulfillment Center Intervention Study, United States, 2021‒2023."
Siebach, Kirsten F., Yaminette Diaz-Linhart, Laura Kubzansky, Lisa Berkman, Molin Wang, Lin Ge, Alexander Kowalski, Hazhir Rahmandad, and Erin L. Kelly. American Journal of Public Health. Forthcoming."Beyond Least Squares: Estimation of Dynamic Models With Alternative Likelihoods and Kalman Filtering."
Li, Tianyi, Hazhir Rahmandad, and John D. Sterman. System Dynamics Review Vol. 41, No. 2 (2025): e70004."Identifying Delayed Human Response to External Risks: An Econometric Analysis of Mobility Change during a Pandemic."
Zhang, Gaofei, Ann Osi, Navid Ghaffarzadegan, Hazhir Rahmandad, and Ran Xu. BMC Medical Research Methodology Vol. 25, No. 244 (2025)."Incorporating Deep Learning Into System Dynamics: Amortized Bayesian Inference for Scalable Likelihood-Free Parameter Estimation."
Rahmandad, Hazhir, Ali Akhavan, and Mohammad S. Jalali. System Dynamics Review Vol. 41, No. 1 (2025): e1798."How Does Network Structure Impact Socially Reinforced Diffusion?"
Sassine, Jad Georges, and Hazhir Rahmandad. Organization Science Vol. 35, No. 1 (2024): 52-70."How Do Employer Practices Affect Economic Mobility?"
Kelly, Erin L., Hazhir Rahmandad, Nathan Wilmers, and Aishwara Yadama. ILR Review Vol. 76, No. 5 (2023): 792-832."Delays Impair Learning and Can Drive Convergence to Inefficient Strategies."
Rahmandad, Hazhir, and Michael Shayne Gary. Organization Science Vol. 34, No. 6 (2023): 2392-2414. Download Paper. Supplemental Materials."Why Similar Policies Resulted In Different COVID-19 Outcomes: How Responsiveness And Culture Influenced Mortality Rate."
Lim, Tse Yang, Ran Xu, Nick Ruktanonchai, Omar Saucedo, Lauren M. Childs, Mohammad S. Jalali, Hazhir Rahmandad, and Navid Ghaffarzadegan. HealthAffairs Vol. 42, No. 12 (2023): 1637-1646."Quantifying the COVID-19 Endgame: Is a New Normal within Reach?"
Rahmandad, Hazhir and John Sterman. System Dynamics Review Vol. 38, No. 4 (2022): 329-353."Behavioral Responses to Risk Promote Vaccinating High-contact Individuals First."
Rahmandad, Hazhir. System Dynamics Review Vol. 38, No. 3 (2022). SSRN Preprint."Enhancing Long-term Forecasting: Learning from COVID-19 Models."
Rahmandad, Hazir, Ran Xu, and Navid Ghaffarzadegan. PLoS Computational Biology Vol. 18, No. 5 (2022): 1-15."A Missing Behavioural Feedback in COVID-19 Models is the Key to Several Puzzles."
Rahmandad, Hazhir, Ran Xu, and Navid Ghaffarzadegan. BMJ Global Health Vol. 7, No. 10 (2022): e010463."Weather, Air Pollution, and SARS-CoV-2 Transmission: A Global Analysis."
Xu, Ran, Hazhir Rahmandad, Marichi Gupta, Catherine DiGennaro, Navid Ghaffarzadegan, Heresh Amini, and Mohammad S. Jalali. The Lancet: Planetary Health Vol. 5, No. 10 (2021): E671-E680."What Makes Dynamic Strategic Problems Difficult? Evidence from an Experimental Study."
Rahmandad, Hazhir, Jerker Denrell, and Dražen Prelec. Strategic Management Journal Vol. 42, No. 5 (2021): 865-897."Behavioral Dynamics of COVID-19: Estimating Under-Reporting, Multiple Waves, and Adherence Fatigue Across 92 Nations."
Rahmandad, Hazhir, Tse Yang Lim, and John D. Sterman. System Dynamics Review Vol. 37, No. 1 (2021): 5-31. SSRN Preprint."Evolution and Reproducibility of Simulation Modeling in Epidemiology and Health Policy over Half a Century."
Jalali, Mohammad S., Catherine DiGennaro, Abby Guitar, Karen Lew, and Hazhir Rahmandad. Epidemiological Reviews Vol. 43, No. 1 (2021): 166-175."If Higher Pay Is Profitable, Why Is It So Rare? Modeling Competing Strategies in Mass Market Services."
Rahmandad, Hazhir and Zeynep Ton. Organization Science Vol. 31, No. 5 (2020): 1053-1071. Download Paper. Supplementary Materials."Simulation-based Estimation of the Early Spread of COVID-19 in Iran: Actual versus Confirmed Cases."
Ghaffarzadegan, Navid, and Hazhir Rahmandad. System Dynamics Review Vol. 36, No. 1 (2020): 101-129."Explaining Heterogeneity in the Organization of Scientific Work."
Rahmandad, Hazhir and Keyvan Vakili. Organization Science Vol. 30, No. 6 (2019): 1125-1145. Download Paper."Interdependence, Complementarity, and Ruggedness of Performance Landscapes."
Rahmandad, Hazhir. Strategy Science Vol. 4, No. 3 (2019): 234-249."Dynamics of Intervention Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance Inside Organizations: the Case of an Obesity Prevention Initiative."
Jalali, Mohammad S., Hazhir Rahmandad, Sally Lawrence Bullock, Seung Hee Lee-Kwan, Joel Gittlesohn, and Alice Ammerman. Social Science & Medicine Vol. 224, (2019): 67-76."How Exposure to Different Opinions Impacts the Life Cycle of Social Media."
Rad, Armin A., Mohammad S. Jalali, and Hazhir Rahmandad. Annals of Operations Research Vol. 268, No. 1-2 (2018): 63-91. Download Paper."Modeling and Estimating the Feedback Mechanisms among Depression, Rumination, and Stressors in Adolescents."
Hosseinichimeh, Niyousha, Andrea K. Wittenborn, Jennifer Rick, Mohammad S. Jalali, and Hazhir Rahmandad. PLoS ONE Vol. 13, No. 9 (2018): e0204389."Making the Numbers? 'Short Termism' and the Puzzle of Only Occasional Disasters."
Rahmandad, Hazhir, Nelson Repenning, and Rebecca Henderson. Management Science Vol. 64, No. 3 (2018): 1328-1347. Online Appendix. Download Paper."Dynamics of Implementation and Maintenance of Organizational Health Interventions."
Jalali, Mohammad S., Hazhir Rahmandad, Sally Lawrence Bullock, and Alice Ammerman. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health Vol. 14, No. 8 (2017): e917."A Flexible Method for Aggregation of Prior Statistical Findings."
Rahmandad, Hazhir, Mohammad S. Jalali, and Kamran Paynabar. PLoS One Vol. 12, No. 4 (2017): e0175111."Social Influence in Childhood Obesity Interventions: A Systematic Review."
Jalali, Mohammed S., Zahra Sharafi-Avarzaman, Hazhir Rahmandad, Alice S. Ammerman. Obesity Reviews Vol. 17, No. 9 (2016): 820-832."Capability Erosion Dynamics."
Rahmandad, Hazhir and Nelson P. Repenning. Strategic Management Journal Vol. 37, No. 4 (2016): 649-672."Estimating the Parameters of System Dynamics Models Using Indirect Inference."
Hosseinichimeh, Niyousha, Hazhir Rahmandad, Mohammad S. Jalali, Andrea K. Wittenborn. System Dynamics Review Vol. 32, No. 2 (2016): 156-180."Depression as a systemic syndrome: Mapping the feedback loops of major depressive disorder."
Wittenborn, Andrea, Hazhir Rahmandad, Jennifer Rick, and Niyousha Hosseinichimeh. Psychological Medicine Vol. 46, No. 3 (2016): 551-562."Inter-phase Feedbacks in Construction Projects."
Parvan, Kiavash, Hazhir Rahmandad, and Ali Haghani. Journal of Operations Management Vol. 39-40, (2015): 48-62."Understanding Econo-Political Risks: Impact of Sanctions on an Automotive Supply Chain."
Davarzani, Hoda, Reza Zanjirani Farahani and Hazhir Rahmandad. International Journal of Operations & Production Management Vol. 35, No. 11 (2015): 1567-1591."Modeling the Hypothalamus–Pituitary–Adrenal Axis: A Review and Extension."
Hosseinichimeh, Niyousha, Hazhir Rahmandad and Andrea K. Wittenborn. Mathematical Biosciences Vol. 268, (2015): 52-65."Connecting Strategy and System Dynamics: An Example and Lessons Learned."
Rahmandad, Hazhir. System Dynamics Review Vol. 31, No. 3 (2015): 149-172."Modeling Social Norms and Social Influence in Obesity."
Shoham, David A., Ross Hammond, Hazhir Rahmandad, Youfa Wang and Peter Hovmand. Current Epidemiology Reports Vol. 2, No. 1 (2015): 71-79."Measuring Dynamic Efficiency of Highway Maintenance Operations."
Fallah-Fini, Saeideh, Konstantinos Triantis, Hazhir Rahmandad and Jesus M. de la Garza. Omega Vol. 50, (2015): 18-28."Human Growth and Body Weight Dynamics: An Integrative Systems Model."
Rahmandad, Hazhir. PlosOne Vol. 9, No. 12 (2014): 1-22."Dynamic Interplay Among Homeostatic, Hedonic, and Cognitive Feedback Circuits Regulating Body Weight."
Hall, Kevin D., Ross A. Hammond and Hazhir Rahmandad. American Journal of Public Health Vol. 104, No. 7 (2014): 1169-1175."Modeling US Adult Obesity Trends: A System Dynamics Model for Estimating Energy Imbalance Gap."
Fallah-Fini, Saeideh, Hazhir Rahmandad, Terry T. K. Huang, Regina M. Bures and Thomas A. Glass. American Journal of Public Health Vol. 104, No. 7 (2014): 1230-1239."Best-fitting Prediction Equations for Basal Metabolic Rate: Informing Obesity Interventions in Diverse Populations."
Sabounchi, N.S., Hashir Rahmandad and A. Ammerman. International Journal of Obesity Vol. 37, No. 10 (2013): 1364-1370."Connecting Micro Dynamics and Population Distributions in System Dynamics Models."
Fallah-Fini, Saeideh, Hazhir Rahmandad, Hsin-Jen Chen, Hong Xue and Youfa Wang. System Dynamics Review Vol. 29, No. 4 (2013): 197-215."Reconciling Statistical and Systems Science Approaches to Public Health."
Ip, Edward H., Hazhir Rahmandad, David A. Shoham, Ross Hammond, Terry T. K. Huang, Youfa Wang and Patricia L. Mabry. Health Education Behavior Vol. 40, No. 1 (2013): 123-131."Reporting Guidelines for Simulation-based Research in Social Sciences."
Rahmandad, Hazir, and John D. Sterman. System Dynamics Review Vol. 28, No. 4 (2012): 396–411. Download Models and Documentation [zip file]."Joint Pricing and Openness Decisions in Software Markets with Reinforcing Loops."
Rahmandad, Hazhir and Soheil Sibdari. System Dynamics Review Vol. 28, No. 3 (2012): 209–229."Impact of Growth Opportunities and Competition on Dynamics of Capability Development."
Rahmandad, Hazir. Organization Science Vol. 23, No. 1 (2012): 138-154."Development of an Individual-based Model for Polioviruses: Implications of the Selection of Network Type and Outcome Metrics."
Rahmadad, Hazhir, Kun Hu, R.J. Duintjer Tebbems and K. M. Thompson. Epidemiology and Infection Vol. 139, No. 6 (2011): 836-848."Factors Influencing the Risk of Falls in Construction Industry: A Review of Evidence."
Hu, Kun, Hazhir Rahmandad, Tonya Smith‐Jackson and Woodrow Winchester. Construction Management and Economics Vol. 29, No. 4 (2011): 397-416."Mapping the Dynamics of Overall Equipment Effectiveness to Enhance Asset Management."
Zuashkiani, Ali, Hazhir Rahmandad and Andrew K.S. Jardine. Journal of Quality in Maintenance Engineering Vol. 17, No. 1 (2011): 74-92."Modeling the Rework Cycle: Capturing Multiple Defects per Task."
Rahmandad, Hazhir and Kun Hu. System Dynamics Review Vol. 26, No. 4 (2010): 291-315."Optimizing Highway Maintenance Operations: Dynamic Considerations."
Fallah-Fini, Saeideh, Hazhir Rahmandad, Konstantinos Triantis and Jesus M. de la Garza. System Dynamics Review Vol. 26, No. 3 (2010): 216-238."Effects of Feedback Delay on Learning."
Rahmandad, Hazhir, Nelson P. Repenning, and John D. Sterman. System Dynamics Review Vol. 25, No. 4 (2009): 309-338. Access paper through MIT Libraries. Download the Vensim Model Reader. Download the Model [Vensim]. Download Supplement [Model Documentation]."Dynamics of Concurrent Software Development."
Rahmandad, Hazhir and D. Weiss. System Dynamics Review Vol. 25, No. 3 (2009): 224-249."Effect of Delays on Complexity of Organizational Learning."
Rahmandad, Hazhir. Management Science Vol. 54, No. 7 (2008): 1297-1312."Heterogeneity and Network Structure in the Dynamics of Diffusion: Comparing Agent-Based and Differential Equation Models."
Rahmandad, Hazhir, and John D. Sterman. Management Science Vol. 54, No. 5 (2008): 998-1014. Model. Model Documentation. Download Paper.
"Responsiveness to Risk Explains Large Variation in COVID-19 Mortality across Countries."
Rahmandad, Hazhir and TY Lim, MIT Sloan Working Paper 6397-20. Cambridge, MA: MIT Sloan School of Management, March 2022."The Effect of Unstable Schedules on Unit and Employee Productivity."
Hashemian, Mahdi, Zeynep Ton, and Hazhir Rahmandad, MIT Sloan Working Paper 6056-19. Cambridge, MA: MIT Sloan School of Management, September 2021."Complex Contagion and Repeated Interactions."
Sassine, Jad, and Hazhir Rahmandad, MIT Sloan Working Paper 6505-21. Cambridge, MA: MIT Sloan School of Management, January 2021."Improving Parameter Estimation of Epidemic Models: Likelihood Functions and Kalman Filtering."
Li, H., Hazhir Rahmandad, and John D. Sterman, MIT Sloan Working Paper 6504-21. Cambridge, MA: MIT Sloan School of Management, 2021.
Analytical Methods for Dynamic Modelers.
Rahmandad, Hazhir, Rogelio Oliva and Nathaniel D. Osgood. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2015.
"How Valuable is COVID-19 Vaccination?"
Hazhir Rahmandad, Evan Feldman, Angie Moon, and Babak Heydari. In International System Dynamics Conference, Chicago, IL: 2023."Employer Practices and Worker Outcomes: A Landscape Report."
Erin L. Kelly, Hazhir Rahmandad, Nathan Wilmers, and Aishwarya Yadama. Washington, DC: June 2022."The Evolution of Simulation Modeling in Health Policy: A Review of the Literature."
Mohammad Jalali, Catherine DiGennaro, Abby Guitar, Karen Lew, Hazhir Rahmandad, and Donald Burke. In Proceedings of the 41st Annual North American Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Portland, OR: October 2019."Can Learning and Markets Solve Challenges to Dynamic Decision Making?"
Hazhir Rahmandad, Jerker Denrell, and Dražen Prelec. In Proceedings of 37th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, 2019, Albuquerque, NM: July 2019."Modeling Competing Actors Using Differential Games. Analytical Methods for Dynamic Modelers."
Rahmandad, Hazhir and R. Spiteri. In Analytical Methods for Dynamic Modelers, edited by Hazhir Rahmandad, Nathaniel D. Osgood, and Rogelio Oliva, Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2015."Using the Method of Simulated Moments for System Identification."
Jalali, M., Hizhair Rahmandad and H Ghoddusi. In Analytical Methods for Dynamic Modelers, edited by Hazhir Rahmandad , Nathaniel D. Osgood , and Rogelio Oliva , Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2015."Reconstructing Online Behaviors by Effort Minimization."
Ashouri Rad, Armin and Hazhir Rahmandad. In Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction, edited by Ariel M. Greenberg, Nathan D. Bos, and William G. Kennedy, 75-82. Berlin, Germany: Springer, 2013."The Model Assessment Report for Youth Earth Plan."
Hazhir Rahmandad, Jonathan Moffat, Gerald O. Barney, Lani Frerichs, Andrea M. Bassi, Angeline Cione, Christopher Nelson, and Vishwa Ramachandran."Three Essays on Modeling Dynamic Organizational Processes."
Rahmandad, Hazhir. PhD diss., MIT Sloan School of Management, 2005.