{"id":1640,"date":"2018-03-27T19:00:36","date_gmt":"2018-03-27T19:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/mitmgmtfaculty.mit.edu\/jsterman\/?page_id=1640"},"modified":"2018-04-05T15:15:20","modified_gmt":"2018-04-05T15:15:20","slug":"currentemissions","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/mitmgmtfaculty.mit.edu\/jsterman\/currentemissions\/","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"

Current Emissions Reductions Proposals in the Lead-up to COP-15 are Likely to be Insufficient to Stabilize Atmospheric CO2 Levels: Using C-ROADS \u2013 a Simple Computer Simulation of Climate Change \u2013 to Support Long-term Climate Policy Development<\/h2>
\n
\n
\n
\n

Sawin, E., Jones, A.,\u00a0 Fiddaman, T., Siegel, L.,\u00a0 Wright, D.,\u00a0 Franck, T.,\u00a0 Barkman, A.,\u00a0 Cummings, T.,\u00a0 Von Peter, J.,\u00a0 Corell, R.,\u00a0 Sterman, J. (2009).\u00a0Current Emissions Reductions in the Lead-up to COP-15 are Likely to be Insufficient to Stabilize Atmospheric CO2 Levels:\u00a0 Using C-ROADS \u2013 a Simple Computer Simulation of Climate Change \u2013 to Support Long-term Climate Policy Development.\u00a0International Scientific Congress on Climate Change, Copenhagen, DK, 10 March 2009.<\/p>\n

Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n

We report the creation and initial use of the Climate-Rapid Overview And Decision Support Simulator (C- ROADS) (1), a simple, fast, user-friendly simulation of climate change that conforms with accepted climate science while allowing decision makers to discover through interactive exploration the range of greenhouse gas emissions trajectories sufficient to achieve widely accepted goals for climate stabilization \u2013 such as stabilizing CO2 levels at or below 350\u2013450 parts per million (ppm) or limiting temperature increase to no more than 2\u00b0 Centigrade over pre-industrial temperatures.\u00a0 As an example of the utility of this computer simulation model for informing policy makers, other leaders, and the public about progress within the UNFCCC negotiations leading up to COP-15 (Copenhagen, Denmark, December 2009) we use C-ROADS to analyze the expected long-term impacts on the climate of proposals currently being put forth by national and regional governments. Our results show that these proposals \u2013 even if fully implemented \u2013 would be far from sufficient to meet the goals of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 levels at or below 450 ppm (reaching ~ 730 ppm by 2100) or limiting warming to 2\u00b0C over pre-industrial temperatures (reaching ~4\u00b0C by 2100 (at the central estimate of climate sensitivity of the IPCC (2).\u00a0<\/p>\n