{"id":1362,"date":"2018-03-25T16:47:52","date_gmt":"2018-03-25T16:47:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/mitmgmtfaculty.mit.edu\/jsterman\/?page_id=1362"},"modified":"2022-01-11T20:01:51","modified_gmt":"2022-01-11T20:01:51","slug":"1362-2","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/mitmgmtfaculty.mit.edu\/jsterman\/1362-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"pl-1362\"  class=\"panel-layout\" ><div id=\"pg-1362-0\"  class=\"panel-grid panel-no-style\" ><div id=\"pgc-1362-0-0\"  class=\"panel-grid-cell\" ><div id=\"panel-1362-0-0-0\" class=\"so-panel widget widget_mit-pf-wysiwyg widget_mit_pf_wysiwyg panel-first-child\" data-index=\"0\" ><div class=\"textwidget\"><\/div><\/div><div id=\"panel-1362-0-0-1\" class=\"so-panel widget widget_mit-pf-wysiwyg widget_mit_pf_wysiwyg\" data-index=\"1\" ><h2 class=\"widget-title\">Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems<\/h2><div class=\"textwidget\"><div class=\"page threecol\">\n<div class=\"wrapper1\">\n<div class=\"col2 contentcol\">\n<div class=\"content\">\n<div>\n<p>J. Struben and J. D. Sterman (2008) Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems.<em>Environment and Planning B<\/em>\u00a035:1070-1097.<\/p>\n<p>DOI:\u00a0http:\/\/doi.org\/10.1068\/b33022t<\/p>\n<p><strong>Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Automakers are now developing alternatives to internal combustion engines (ICE), including hydrogen fuel cells and ICE-electric hybrids. Adoption dynamics for alternative vehicles are complex due to the size and importance of the auto industry and vehicle installed base. Diffusion of alternative vehicles is both enabled and constrained by powerful positive feedbacks arising from scale and scope economies, R&amp;D, learning by doing, driver experience, word of mouth, and complementary resources such as fueling infrastructure. We describe a dynamic model of the diffusion of and competition among alternative fuel vehicles, including coevolution of the fleet, technology, consumer behavior, and complementary resources. Here we focus on the generation of consumer awareness of alternatives through feedback from consumers\u2019 experience, word of mouth and marketing, with a reduced form treatment of network effects and other positive feedbacks (which we treat in other papers). We demonstrate the existence of a critical threshold for sustained adoption of alternative technologies, and show how the threshold depends on economic and behavioral parameters. We show that word of mouth from those not driving an alternative vehicle is important in stimulating diffusion. Expanding the model boundary to include learning, technological spillovers and spatial coevolution of fueling infrastructure adds additional feedbacks that condition the diffusion of alternative vehicles. Results show scenarios for successful diffusion of alternative vehicles, but also suggest that marketing programs and subsidies for alternatives must remain in place for long periods for diffusion to become self-sustaining.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems J. Struben and J. D. Sterman (2008) Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems.Environment and Planning B\u00a035:1070-1097. DOI:\u00a0http:\/\/doi.org\/10.1068\/b33022t Abstract Automakers are now developing alternatives to internal combustion engines (ICE), including hydrogen fuel cells and ICE-electric hybrids. Adoption dynamics for alternative vehicles are complex due [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":152,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1362","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.0 (Yoast SEO v25.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems - John Sterman<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/mitmgmtfaculty.mit.edu\/jsterman\/1362-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems J. Struben and J. D. Sterman (2008) Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems.Environment and Planning B\u00a035:1070-1097. DOI:\u00a0http:\/\/doi.org\/10.1068\/b33022t Abstract Automakers are now developing alternatives to internal combustion engines (ICE), including hydrogen fuel cells and ICE-electric hybrids. Adoption dynamics for alternative vehicles are complex due [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/mitmgmtfaculty.mit.edu\/jsterman\/1362-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"John Sterman\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-01-11T20:01:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/mitmgmtfaculty.mit.edu\/jsterman\/1362-2\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/mitmgmtfaculty.mit.edu\/jsterman\/1362-2\/\",\"name\":\"Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems - John Sterman\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/mitmgmtfaculty.mit.edu\/jsterman\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2018-03-25T16:47:52+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-01-11T20:01:51+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/mitmgmtfaculty.mit.edu\/jsterman\/1362-2\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/mitmgmtfaculty.mit.edu\/jsterman\/1362-2\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/mitmgmtfaculty.mit.edu\/jsterman\/1362-2\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/mitmgmtfaculty.mit.edu\/jsterman\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/mitmgmtfaculty.mit.edu\/jsterman\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/mitmgmtfaculty.mit.edu\/jsterman\/\",\"name\":\"John Sterman\",\"description\":\"MIT Personal Faculty\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/mitmgmtfaculty.mit.edu\/jsterman\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems - John Sterman","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/mitmgmtfaculty.mit.edu\/jsterman\/1362-2\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems","og_description":"Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems J. Struben and J. D. Sterman (2008) Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems.Environment and Planning B\u00a035:1070-1097. DOI:\u00a0http:\/\/doi.org\/10.1068\/b33022t Abstract Automakers are now developing alternatives to internal combustion engines (ICE), including hydrogen fuel cells and ICE-electric hybrids. 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