Working Papers & Publications
"Introduction to the ARFE Theme on the Social Discount Rate."
Lucas, Deborah J. Annual Review of Financial Economics Vol. 15, (2023): 115-125."Reflections on What Financial Economics Can and Cannot Teach Us About the Social Discount Rate."
Lucas, Deborah J. Annual Review of Financial Economics Vol. 15, (2023): 185-195."Comment on 'The Sustainability of State and Local Government Pensions: A Public Finance Approach,’ by Jamie Lenney, Byron Lutz, Finn Schuele, Louise Sheiner."
Lucas, Deborah J. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2021): 49-63."How Much Can Collective Defined Contribution Plans Improve Risk-Sharing?"
Lucas, Deborah J., and Daniel Smith. Journal of Investment Management Vol. 18, No. 4 (2020): 1-27."Measuring the Cost of Bailouts."
Lucas, Deborah J. Annual Review of Financial Economics Vol. 11, (2019): 85-108. Download Paper."The Student Loan Consolidation Option."
Lucas, Deborah J. and Damien Moore. Journal of Public Economics Vol. 174, (2019): 1-12."Credit Policy as Fiscal Policy."
Lucas, Deborah J. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2016): 1-41. Download Appendix."Joint Risk of DB Pension Underfunding and Sponsor Termination: Incorporating Options-Based Projections and Valuations into PIMS."
Lucas, Deborah J. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance Vol. 14, No. 2 (2015): 172-185."Evaluating the Government as a Source of Systemic Risk."
Lucas, Deborah J. Journal of Financial Perspectives Vol. 2, No. 3 (2014): 5-26."Rebutting Arrow and Lind: Why Governments Should Use Market Rates for Discounting."
Lucas, Deborah J. Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research Vol. 6, No. 1 (2014): 85-91."Comment on 'Testing Macroprudential Stress Tests: The Risk of Regulatory Risk Weights'."
Lucas, Deborah J. Journal of Monetary Economics Vol. 65, No. 1 (2014): 54-56."Evaluating the Cost of Government Credit Support: The OECD Context."
Lucas, Deborah J. Economic Policy Vol. 29, No. 79 (2014): 553-597. Download Preprint."Comment on 'Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Financial Institutions' by Gabriel Chowdorow-Reich."
Lucas, Deborah J. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2014): 205-209."Comment on 'The Future of U.S. Housing Finance Reform' by Philip Swagel."
Lucas, Deborah J. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics Vol. 12, No. 3 (2012): 1935-1690."Valuation of Government Policies and Projects."
Lucas, Deborah J. Annual Review of Financial Economics Vol. 4, (2012): 39-58. Download Paper."Is Mark-to-Market Accounting Destabilizing? Analysis and Implications for Policy."
Heaton, John, Deborah J. Lucas and Robert L. McDonald. Journal of Monetary Economics Vol. 57, No. 1 (2010): 64-75."Reforming Credit Reform."
Lucas, Deborah J. and Marvin Phaup. Public Budgeting & Finance Vol. 28, No. 4 (2008): 90-110."Comment on ‘Making Sense of the Subprime Crisis’ by K. Gerardi, A. Lehnart, S. Sherland and P. Willen."
Lucas, Deborah J. Brookings Papers on Economic Activities (2008): 146-153."Comment on 'Global Demographic Trends and Social Security Reform' by Orazio Attanasio, Sagiri Kitao, and Giovanni Violante."
Lucas, Deborah J. Journal of Monetary Economics Vol. 54, No. 1 (2007): 199-204."Comment on 'On Asset-Liability Matching and Federal Deposit and Pension Insurance' by Zvi Bodie."
Lucas, Deborah. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review Vol. 88, No. 4 (2006): 331-335."An Options-Based Approach to Evaluating the Risk of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac."
Lucas, Deborah J. and Robert L. McDonald. Journal of Monetary Economics Vol. 53, No. 1 (2006): 155-176."Modeling the Effects of Fiscal Policy Imbalances: How Much Does Myopia Matter?"
Lucas, Deborah J. Review of Economic Dynamics Vol. 6, No. 4 (2003): 789-805."Investing Public Pensions in the Stock Market: Implications for Risk Sharing, Capital Formation and Public Policy in the Developed and Developing World."
Lucas, Deborah J. Sasin Journal of Management Vol. 7, (2001): 179-202."Portfolio Choice and Asset Prices: The Importance of Entrepreneurial Risk."
Heaton, John and Deborah J. Lucas. Journal of Finance Vol. 55, No. 3 (2000): 1163-1198."Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Background Risk."
Heaton, John and Deborah J. Lucas. The Economic Journal Vol. 110, No. 460 (2000): 1-26."Price and Interest Rate Dynamics Induced by Multiperiod Contracts."
Lucas, Deborah J. North American Journal of Economics and Finance Vol. 10, No. 2 (1999): 315-338."Shareholder Heterogeneity, Adverse Selection, and Payout Policy."
Lucas, Deborah J. and Robert McDonald. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol. 33, No. 2 (1998): 233-253."Market Frictions, Savings Behavior, and Portfolio Choice."
Heaton, John and Deborah J. Lucas. Macroeconomic Dynamics Vol. 1, No. 1 (1997): 76-101."Managed Competition with Prefunding: The Solution for Long-term Care?"
Lucas, Deborah J. The Milbank Quarterly Vol. 74, No. 4 (1996): 571-597."Evaluating the Effects of Incomplete Markets on Risk Sharing and Asset Pricing."
Heaton, John and Deborah J. Lucas. Journal of Political Economy Vol. 104, No. 3 (1996): 443-487."Comment on 'Financial Intermediation and Monetary Policy in a General Equilibrium Banking Model' by Pamela Labadie."
Lucas, Deborah J. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking Vol. 27, No. 4 (1995): 1316-1318."The Importance of Investor Heterogeneity and Financial Market Imperfections for the Behavior of Asset Prices."
Heaton, John and Deborah J. Lucas. Carnegie Rochester Papers Vol. 42, No. 1 (1995): 1-32."Asset Pricing with Undiversifiable Income Risk and Short Sales Constraints: Deepening the Equity Premium Puzzle."
Lucas, Deborah J. Journal of Monetary Economics Vol. 34, No. 3 (1994): 325-341."Comment on 'A "Barter" Theory of Bank Regulation and Credit Allocation' by Anjan Thakor and Jess Beltz."
Lucas, Deborah J. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking Vol. 26, No. 3 (1994): 706-709."Equity Issues with Time-Varying Asymmetric Information."
Korajczyk, Robert A., Deborah J. Lucas and Robert L. McDonald. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol. 27, No. 3 (1992): 397-417."The Effects of Incomplete Insurance Markets and Trading Costs in a Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Model."
Heaton, John and Deborah J. Lucas. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control Vol. 16, No. 3-4 (1992): 601-620."Bank Financing and Investment Decisions with Asymmetric Information about Loan Quality."
Lucas, Deborah J. and Robert L. McDonald. Rand Journal Vol. 23, No. 1 (1992): 86-105."Asset Pricing with Incomplete Markets, A Survey."
Lucas, Deborah J. Cuadernos Economicos de ICE Vol. 50, (1992): 39-58."The Effect of Information Releases on the Pricing and Timing of Equity Issues."
Korajczyk, Robert A., Deborah J. Lucas and Robert L. McDonald. Review of Financial Studies Vol. 4, No. 4 (1991): 685-708."Foundations of the Cash-in-Advance Model: A Review Essay."
Lucas, Deborah. Journal of Monetary Economics Vol. 27, No. 3 (1991): 487-493."The Variability of Velocity in Cash-in-Advance Models."
Hodrick, Robert J., Narayana Kocherlakota and Deborah J. Lucas. Journal of Political Economy Vol. 99, No. 2 (1991): 358-384."Equity Issues and Stock Price Dynamics."
Lucas, Deborah J. and Robert L. McDonald. Journal of Finance Vol. 45, No. 4 (1990): 1019-1043."Bank Portfolio Choice with Private Information About Loan Quality: Theory and Implications for Regulation."
Lucas, Deborah J. and Robert L. McDonald. Journal of Banking and Finance Vol. 11, No. 3 (1987): 473-497.
"Comments on Draft Revisions to OMB Circulars A-4 and A-94."
Joskow, Paul, Christopher Knittel, Deborah J. Lucas, Gilbert Metcalf, John Parsons, Robert Pindyck, and Richard Schmalensee, Working Paper. July 2023."Credit Risk Transfer and the Pricing of Mortgage Default Risk."
Golding, Edward, and Deborah J. Lucas, MIT Sloan Working Paper 6380-20. Cambridge, MA: MIT Sloan School of Management, October 2022."Inventory of Support for Fossil Fuels—Estimating the Support Component of Loan Guarantees and Preferential Loans."
Lucas, Deborah J., MIT Sloan Working Paper 5400-17. Cambridge, MA: MIT Sloan School of Management, December 2019."Fiscal Consequences of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet."
Lucas, Deborah J., MIT Sloan Working Paper 5402-17. Cambridge, MA: MIT Sloan School of Management, September 2017."Valuing the GSEs’ Government Support."
Lucas, Deborah J., MIT Sloan Working Paper 5403-17. Cambridge, MA: MIT Sloan School of Management, May 2017."Hacking Reverse Mortgages."
Lucas, Deborah J., MIT Sloan Working Paper 5401-15. Cambridge, MA: MIT Sloan School of Management, October 2015."Evaluating the Government as a Source of Systemic Risk."
Lucas, Deborah J., Working Paper. September 2011."An Evaluation of Large-Scale Mortgage Refinancing Programs."
Remy, Mitchell, Deborah Lucas, and Damien Moore, MIT Sloan Working Paper 5369-11. Cambridge, MA: MIT Sloan School of Management, September 2011."Why Do Guaranteed SBA Loans Cost Borrowers So Much?"
de Andrade, Flavio, and Deborah J. Lucas, MIT Sloan Working Paper 5371-09. Cambridge, MA: MIT Sloan School of Management, July 2009."Capital Structure, Hurdle Rates, and Portfolio Choice – Interactions in an Entrepreneurial Firm."
Heaton, John, and Deborah J. Lucas, MIT Sloan Working Paper 5372-09. Cambridge, MA: MIT Sloan School of Management, January 2009."Valuing and Hedging Defined Benefit Pension Obligations— The Role of Stocks Revisited."
Lucas, Deborah J., and Stephen P. Zeldes, MIT Sloan Working Paper 5370-05. Cambridge, MA: MIT Sloan School of Management, September 2006."Investing Public Pensions in the Stock Market: Implications for Risk Sharing and Asset Prices."
Heaton, John, and Deborah J. Lucas, Working Paper. May 2005."Accrual Accounting for Federal Entitlements -- Issues and Estimates."
Lucas, Deborah J., MIT Sloan Working Paper 5373-03. Cambridge, MA: MIT Sloan School of Management, November 2003.
Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population.
Lee, Ronald, Roger W. Ferguson Jr., Alan J. Auerbach, Axel Boersh-Supan, John Bongaarts, Susan M. Collins, Charles M. Lucas, Deborah J. Lucas, Olivia S. Mitchell, William D. Nordhaus, James M. Poterba, John W. Rowe, Louise M. Sheiner, and David A. Wise. Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 2012.
"Want to Prevent Another SVB? Have Banks Disclose Their Duration Gap."
Golding, Edward L., and Deborah J. Lucas. American Banker, October 16, 2023."COVID Credit Policies Around the World: Size, Scope, Costs and Consequences."
Gee Hee Hong and Deborah J. Lucas. In Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring Conference, Washington, D.C.: March 2023."Comment on ‘Measuring U.S. Fiscal Capacity using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis'."
Lucas, Deborah J. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2022."A Fair Value Approach to Valuing Public Infrastructure Projects and the Risk Transfer in Public Private Partnerships."
Lucas, Deborah J., and Jorge Jimenez Montesinos. In Economics of Infrastructure Investment, 1-33. Cambridge, MA: University of Chicago Press, 2021."Chapter 10: Policy Rx for the Economy: Cash or Credit?"
Lucas, Deborah J. In Impact of COVID-19 on Asian Economies and Policy Responses, edited by Bernard Yeung, Sumit Agarwal, and Zhiguo He, 65-69. London, UK: World Scientific Press, 2021."Funding Pandemic Relief: Monetise Now."
Gürkaynak, Refet, and Deborah Lucas. Vox, May 14, 2020."Now We Know How Much the Financial Crisis Cost."
Lucas, Deborah J. Barron's, March 16, 2019."The Risk Management Function of the Future: How Regulatory Mandates and Expectations are Shaping Risk Management at U.S. Banks."
Doug Criscitello, Jose Molina, Raajkamal Iyer, Frank Saavedra-Lim, Deborah J. Lucas, and Kyle Shohfi. Cambridge, MA: December 2017."Towards Fair Value Accounting for Public Pensions: The Case for Delinking Disclosure and Funding Requirements."
Deborah J. Lucas. In Gathering Storm: The Risks of State Pension Underfunding, Cambridge, MA: November 2017."Investors Should Worry About China’s Debt-Burdened Cities."
Lucas, Deborah, and Doug Criscitello. Fortune, February 2, 2016."Measuring the Systemic Importance of U.S. Bank Holding Companies."
Deborah J. Lucas. In Hearing Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, United States Senate One Hundred Fourteenth Congress, Washington, DC: July 2015."‘Truth is our only refuge': Why the CBO Must Remain Independent."
Lucas, Deborah J. The Conversation, February 4, 2015."Putting an Accurate Price Tag on Government Credit Support."
Lucas, Deborah J. VOXeu, Centre for Economic Policy Research, December 5, 2014."Federal Credit Programs."
Lucas, Deborah J. In Public Economics in the United States: How the Federal Government Analyzes and Influences the Economy, edited by Steven Payson, 375-398. Santa Barbara, CA: ABC-CLIO, LLC, 2014."Keeping College Within Reach: Examining Opportunities to Strengthen Federal Student Loan Programs."
Deborah J. Lucas. In Testimony before the Committee on Education and the Workforce, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, DC: March 2013."Fair-Value Accounting for Federal Credit Programs."
Deborah Lucas and Mark Hadley. In A Congressional Budget Office Issue Brief, edited by Damien Moore. Washington, DC: March 2012."The Federal Debt: Assessing the Capacity to Pay."
Lucas, Deborah J. In Is the U.S. Government Debt Different?, 101-111. Philadelphia, PA: FIC Press, 2012."Federal Loan Guarantees for the Construction of Nuclear Power Plants."
Wendy Kiska and Deborah Lucas. In A CBO Study, edited by Loretta Lettner. Congressional Budget Office: August 2011."The Budgetary Cost of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and Options for the Future Federal Role in the Secondary Mortgage Market."
Deborah Lucas. In Testimony before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, DC: June 2011."Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Role of the Secondary Mortgage Market."
Deborah Lucas and David Torregrosa. In A CBO Study, edited by Christian Howlett. Washington, DC: December 2010."Heterogeneity and Portfolio Choice: Theory and Evidence."
Curcuru, Stephanie, John Heaton, Deborah J. Lucas and Damien Moore. In The Handbook of Financial Econometrics, 337-382. Amsterdam, Netherlands: North-Holland, 2010."The Budgetary Impact and Subsidy Cost of the Federal Reserve’s Activities During and Financial Crisis."
Kim Kowalewski, Wendy Kiska, and Deborah Lucas. In A CBO Study, Washington, DC: May 2010."Guaranteed Versus Direct Lending: The Case of Student Loans."
Lucas, Deborah J. and Damien Moore. In Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk, edited by Deborah J. Lucas , 163-205. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2010."The Cost of Risk to the Government and Its Implications for Federal Budgeting."
Lucas, Deborah J. and Marvin Phaup. In Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk, edited by Deborah J. Lucas, 29-54. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2010."Valuing Government Guarantees: Fannie and Freddie Revisited."
Lucas, Deborah J. and Robert L. McDonald. In Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk, edited by Deborah J. Lucas , 131 - 154. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2010."How Should Public Pension Plans Invest?"
Deborah J. Lucas and Stephen Zeldes. In Papers and Proceedings of the One Hundred Twenty-First Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association, edited by Jane E. Voros and WIlliam R. Johnson. Nashville, TN: May 2009."There's Just No Accounting for Federal Bailouts."
Lucas, Deborah J. Crain's Chicago Business, October 18, 2008."Can Heterogeneity, Undiversified Risk, and Trading Frictions Solve the Equity Premium Puzzle?"
Heaton, John and Deborah J. Lucas. In Handbook of the Equity Risk Premium, edited by Rajnish Mehra , 535-557. USA: North-Holland, 2007."Federal Financial Guarantees Under the Small Business Administration’s 7(a) Program."
Deborah Lucas and Wendy Kiska. In CBO Papers, Washington, DC: October 2007."Who Holds the Toxic Waste? An Investigation of MBS Holdings."
Joseph G. Haubrich and Deborah Lucas. In Proceedings of the 2006 Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, Chicago, IL: May 2006."Evaluating Benefit Guarantees in Social Security."
Sven Sinclair, Deborah Lucas, Amy Rehder Harris, Michael Simpson, and Julie Topoleski. In CBO Background Papers, edited by Loretta Lettner. Washington, DC: March 2006."The Risk Exposure of the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation."
Wendy Kiska, Deborah Lucas, and Marvin Phaup. In CBO Papers, edited by Janey Cohen. Washington, DC: September 2005."Investing Public Pensions in the Stock Market: Implications for Risk Sharing, Capital Formation and Public Policy in the Developed and Developing World."
Lucas, Deborah. In Social Security Reform, 183-204. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2005."Estimating the Value of Subsidies for Federal Loans and Loan Guarantees."
Deborah Lucas, Marvin Phaup and Ravi Prasad. In CBO Papers, edited by Christian Spoor. Washington, DC: August 2004."Evaluating and Accounting for Federal Investment in Corporate Stocks and Other Private Securities."
Deborah Lucas, Doug Hamilton and Marvin Phaup. In CBO Papers, edited by Christian Spoor. Washington, DC: January 2003."Federal Subsidies and the Housing GSEs."
Deborah Lucas and Marvin Phaup. In CBO Papers, edited by John Skeen. Washington, DC: May 2001."Comment on ‘The Social Security Trust Fund, the Riskless Interest Rate, and Capital Accumulation’."
Lucas, Deborah J. In Risk Aspects of Investment Based Social Security Reform, 194-200. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2000."Stock Prices and Fundamentals."
Heaton, John and Deborah J. Lucas. In Macroeconomics Annual, 213-264. Cambridge, MA: MIT, 2000."External Financing and Insurance Cycles."
Gron, Anne and Deborah J. Lucas. In The Economics of Property-Casualty Insurance, edited by David F. Bradford, 5-28. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1998."Comment on ‘A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt’."
Lucas, Deborah J. In 1996 NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 201-206. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1996."Understanding the Behavior of Stock Prices around the Time of an Equity Issue."
Korajczyk, Robert A., Deborah J. Lucas and Robert L. McDonald. In Asymmetric Information, Corporate Finance, and Investment, edited by R. Glenn Hubbard , 257-278. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1990.