Current Emissions Reductions Proposals in the Lead-up to COP-15 are Likely to be Insufficient to Stabilize Atmospheric CO2 Levels: Using C-ROADS – a Simple Computer Simulation of Climate Change – to Support Long-term Climate Policy Development
Sawin, E., Jones, A., Fiddaman, T., Siegel, L., Wright, D., Franck, T., Barkman, A., Cummings, T., Von Peter, J., Corell, R., Sterman, J. (2009). Current Emissions Reductions in the Lead-up to COP-15 are Likely to be Insufficient to Stabilize Atmospheric CO2 Levels: Using C-ROADS – a Simple Computer Simulation of Climate Change – to Support Long-term Climate Policy Development. International Scientific Congress on Climate Change, Copenhagen, DK, 10 March 2009.
Abstract
We report the creation and initial use of the Climate-Rapid Overview And Decision Support Simulator (C- ROADS) (1), a simple, fast, user-friendly simulation of climate change that conforms with accepted climate science while allowing decision makers to discover through interactive exploration the range of greenhouse gas emissions trajectories sufficient to achieve widely accepted goals for climate stabilization – such as stabilizing CO2 levels at or below 350–450 parts per million (ppm) or limiting temperature increase to no more than 2° Centigrade over pre-industrial temperatures. As an example of the utility of this computer simulation model for informing policy makers, other leaders, and the public about progress within the UNFCCC negotiations leading up to COP-15 (Copenhagen, Denmark, December 2009) we use C-ROADS to analyze the expected long-term impacts on the climate of proposals currently being put forth by national and regional governments. Our results show that these proposals – even if fully implemented – would be far from sufficient to meet the goals of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 levels at or below 450 ppm (reaching ~ 730 ppm by 2100) or limiting warming to 2°C over pre-industrial temperatures (reaching ~4°C by 2100 (at the central estimate of climate sensitivity of the IPCC (2).