Sterman, J., T. Fiddaman, T. Franck, A. Jones, S. McCauley, P. Rice, E. Sawin, L. Siegel (2012). Climate Interactive:  The C-ROADS Climate Policy Model. System Dynamics Review 28(3): 295-305.

DOI: http://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1474

Abstract

Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) the nations of the world have pledged to limit warming to no more than 2°C above preindustrial levels. However, negotiators and policymakers lack the capability to assess the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction proposals offered by the parties. Existing climate models are opaque to policymakers and too slow to be effective in the fast-paced context of policymaking or as learning environments to help improve people’s understanding of climate dynamics. Consequently, policymakers, educators, business and civic leaders, the media and the general public rely on their intuition to assess the likely impacts of emissions reduction proposals. However, research shows common mental models, even among experts, are highly unreliable when applied to understanding how proposals affect likely future climate. Here we describe C-ROADS (Climate-Rapid Overview And Decision Support), a transparent, intuitive policy simulation model that provides policymakers, negotiators, educators, businesses, the media, and the public with the ability to explore, for themselves, the likely consequences of GHG emissions policies. The model runs on an ordinary laptop in seconds, offers an intuitive interface and has been carefully grounded in the best available science. We describe the need for such tools, the structure of the model, calibration to historical data, and how C-ROADS is used by key UNFCCC parties, including the United States, China and the United Nations. The model and full documentation are available at http://climateinteractive.org.

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